Short version: Congress can call anything a High Crime. If the Senate agrees, the President is out.
However, both chambers are currently controlled by Republicans. Mind you. On a knife edge. As the healthcare debate is demonstrating. So, impeachment is iffy.
It likely would come down to the re-election chances of Republican Senators and Congressmen in 2018. Those Republicans who feel threatened by Democrats in their re-election chances might vote to impeach. Those who feel threatened by Trump’s core won’t.
Trump’s core is holding. And will continue to hold. So long as that core buys the line that it is Trump –v- Washington.
Any mention of impeachment before mid-terms is likely to feed that line in spades. The proverbial fuel on the flames. And right there is your vicious circle. Mention it, you’re doomed. Don’t mention it, you’re doomed.
So. This is all going to come down to politics. I don’t think Trump’s core give a toss about Comey. Or his firing. And, in my continuing opinion, 2018 and 2020 is going to be decided by at least some Trump supporters swinging back to the Democrats.
If Democrats can come up with a line on Comey that sells to those swing voters, go for it. If they think that line adds to a growing check list, along with the failings of Trumpcare, a check list that truly affects ordinary working people, as opposed to the sensibilities of a college degree in a bar on K Street, then go for it.
Bearing in mind it’s going to come down to whether those swing voters are more likely to buy the Trump line of, gee, how can I be castigated for firing Comey over Hillary, versus the Democrat’s ‘horseshit!’.
Even then, I continue to believe that Democrats will only succeed in their electoral ambitions if they have a suitable alternative lined up. And they don’t yet.
And while we’re doing ‘bearing in mind,’ bear in mind this, also. All of you who think impeachment is a judicial process, you have rocks in your heads.
Impeachment is undertaken by politicians. It is a political process. Ultimately, the judgment is political.
In considering whether to impeach before 2018, the political jury will be looking at their re-election chances: political.
In the 2018 election campaign itself, those of the existing political jury up for re-election, plus those looking to join the political jury, will make Trump’s alleged ‘High Crimes and Misdemeanors’ a primary plank of their election/re-election campaigns. Whether in the quasi-judicial or political context.
After 2018, the political jury will continue to consider their verdict in a political context. Bearing in mind this most important political point.
If Republicans win in 2018. If Trump’s alleged ‘High Crimes and Misdemeanors’ can be demonstrated to have been an essential issue in those highly-political elections. Then, Republicans could say that the court of political opinion has already cast its verdict in the essentially political ‘impeachment’ of the President. And they might well use that political ‘verdict’ as sufficient grounds for refusing to consider the quasi-judicial Congressional process of impeachment.
In other words. And again. Buggered if you do, buggered if you don’t. Be very careful that the weapon you wave around so passionately does not, in fact, slice you off at the knees.
Longer version: Actually, that will pretty much do.
I think we are in the middle of a leviathan power struggle. That focuses on the US Presidency, simply because the US is still the primary nation-state powerbroker in the world today.
I think there are all sorts of elements at play in that power struggle. From the everyday grassroots US political (read my blog, Democratic Populism). To the billionaire wanting power. The billionaire taking on Washington. The billionaire taking on the power elite. Being blackmailed by Russia. Being hacked by Russia. Using digital operations as psyops. Global new world conspiracies. Bloodlines of Jesus. Take your pick. You’ll find most of those picks on another of my blogs (New World Trump).
But again. At the end of the day, if ordinary you and me thinks we have any chance of doing anything about this, it is going to come back to the political. My thoughts on which remain the same as the short version.
With the additional suggestion that I posted in Trump, Blah, Blah (III). Namely. Sigh gently. Consider creating an alternative lifestyle. As far away from Washington and power plays as possible. Geographically. Politically. And spiritually.
In the meantime. On a personal level. I will continue to do what I am doing. And what I have set out in the past few days. At my own pace. In my own way. Which includes laughing myself stupid.
We get the elected officials we deserve. And we got the man who just fired his own prosecutor because we made it so. All the rest is so much K Street Game of Thrones.
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